It all comes down to this in the Scottish Premiership, Championship Round. Hearts arrive at Celtic Park one point clear, needing at least a draw to lift the trophy. Celtic must win to make it five titles in a row and add to their 55 league crowns. For Hearts, a title today would be the first since the 1959/60 season, so more than 65 years in the making. Sofascore’s pregame model gives Celtic a 51% win probability, with a 23% chance of a draw and 26% for Hearts.

The state of play

The table is tight: Hearts on 80 points after 37 matches, Celtic on 79. Goal difference is +35 for Hearts and +30 for Celtic, so the destination is simple. A draw suits Hearts, while only a home win lands the title in Glasgow. Celtic have scored 70 league goals and conceded 40, while Hearts come in at 66 scored and 31 conceded. That defensive record has powered 17 clean sheets for Hearts, which is 46% of their games.

Celtic bring their own strengths. They average 2.14 points per game, right behind Hearts at 2.16. The home side fire 16.5 shots per match, compared with Hearts at 14.3. Celtic also post 13 clean sheets, and their average Sofascore Rating sits at 6.93, narrowly above Hearts at 6.91. Add in the venue factor at Celtic Park and you have a title race balanced on fine margins.

Form and history

Momentum looks strong on both benches. Celtic roll in with five straight wins, spotless across their last five. Hearts are unbeaten in five too, with a WWWDW run that kept them in front heading to the final day. Recent form should keep this tense from the first whistle.

History leans green. In the all-time head-to-head, Celtic have 117 wins, Hearts 37, with 32 draws. That legacy does not decide a single match, especially with this prize on the line, but it adds context. The numbers also say these sides have played near-identical seasons. The average team Sofascore Rating difference is minimal, which fits a one-point title gap.

Numbers that shape the matchup

Expect Celtic to have most of the ball. They average 65.5% possession and 22,444 total passes at 86.99% accuracy. Hearts sit at 53.9% possession with 15,527 passes and 77.06% accuracy. If Celtic control territory, the visitors will look comfortable defending deeper and waiting for moments.

Chance creation tilts to the hosts. Celtic generate 3.57 big chances per game and 16.5 shots, with 206 shots on target this season. Hearts produce 2.49 big chances per game and 14.3 shots, with 187 on target. On set pieces and pressure, Celtic also rack up 243 corners to Hearts’ 206, another territory hint.

Hearts counter with efficiency and defensive stability. They have conceded just 31 goals and kept those 17 clean sheets. Their aerial game is steady, winning 52.48% of duels in the air, while Celtic stand at 54.09%. The margins are close almost everywhere, which is why one moment could decide the title.

Lineups, key players and odds to know

Kickoff is 16/05/2026 at 12:30 in Glasgow. On the Sofascore match page you will find live momentum, player heatmaps and post-match Sofascore Ratings in real time. Projected shapes show Celtic in a 4-2-3-1 and Hearts in a 4-4-2, with lineups not yet confirmed. Martin O’Neill leads the hosts, while Derek McInnes is on the away bench.

For impact players, the data points are clear. Celtic’s Benjamin Nygren leads their goal chart with 16. Hearts’ Lawrence Shankland sits on 15. Kieran Tierney has 8 assists and a team-high 7.31 Sofascore Rating for Celtic. Harry Milne tops Hearts by average with a 7.27 Sofascore Rating, while Alexandros Kyziridis has 7 assists. Those are reliable markers of form in a match where fine details will matter.

The market reflects the tight picture. Full-time odds converted to decimal are Celtic 1.56, Draw 4.20, Hearts 5.00. The Asian handicap highlights Celtic’s pressure spot too, with Celtic -1 at 2.03 and Hearts +1 at 1.83. Nothing is settled by numbers alone, but they frame the pathways: control and volume for Celtic, structure and clean-sheet habits for Hearts.